H1N1 Update 12/16/09 from the AMA

CDC estimates 15% of Americans have been infected with H1N1.

The CDC released new H1N1 statistics on Thursday, garnering coverage in most major papers and two network newscasts. Coverage largely focused on the number and distribution of the infections, and noted worries about another wave of infections in January. The CBS Evening News (12/10, story 7, 2:20, Couric) reported, "The H1N1 flu began hitting Americans last spring, and now we're getting a clearer picture of the impact. The CDC estimated today that nearly 50 million of us have come down with the flu, nearly 10,000 have died, including 1,100 children." Dr. Thomas Frieden, CDC director, is shown saying, "Many times more children and younger adults, unfortunately, have been hospitalized or killed by H1N1 influenza than occurs during a usual flu season."
ABC World News (12/10, story 7, 0:25, Gibson) reported that "even more worrisome" is that "the flu has caused 10,000 deaths, three-fourths of those among young adults, though that is still less than the normal death rate from the seasonal flu."
USA Today (12/11) reports that up to "Nov. 17, 200,000 people have been hospitalized," which USA Today notes is "about the same number of people hospitalized during the entire flu season, which usually lasts until May."
The New York Times (12/11, A26, McNeil) points out that a month ago, the CDC "estimated that only about 4,000 had died." But "several flu experts said they were not shocked by the sudden jump because the new figures were as of Nov. 14, when this fall's wave of swine flu cases was reaching its peak." The number of people who "will ultimately die of the H1N1 flu depends heavily on whether there is a third wave in January...and on whether the virus changes to be more lethal or drug-resistant."
With 15% of Americans having been infected, Dr. Frieden said, "That still leaves most people not having been infected and still susceptible," the Los Angeles Times (12/11, Maugh) reports. "Frieden said the 200,000 hospitalizations since the beginning of the pandemic seven months ago is about the same as in a usual flu season. The deaths are lower than the 35,000 associated with seasonal flu in a typical year, but the breakdown is sharply different." The deaths "include 1,100 children and 7,500 adults 18 to 64."
Frieden noted that "many times more children and younger adults, unfortunately, have been hospitalized or killed by H1N1 influenza than during a regular flu season," the Wall Street Journal (12/11, A6, McKay) reports.
But, according to the AP (12/11, Stobbe), CDC officials acknowledged that "it's likely the new estimate is conservative, and undercounts elderly deaths" because "the new CDC swine flu estimates do not include heart attacks and strokes, mainly because there hasn't been time to collect that kind of data."
Still, the Washington Times (12/11, Geracimos) notes that "the seasonal flu itself is still to come, meaning the number of flu deaths and hospitalizations hasn't come close to its final figure." But "as of this week, 85 million doses of vaccine are available, [Frieden] noted, with more providers giving the vaccine in increasing numbers to the high priority groups." When "asked how receptive Americans have been to the H1N1 vaccine," Frieden "said that half of those polled 'wants to and plans to be vaccinated.'"
Frieden added that "many states are expanding the vaccination programs from the high-risk groups such as children and pregnant women to include healthy adults," Bloomberg News (12/11, Randall) reports.
Time (12/11, Park) reports that experts said the new data was "not surprising," as the current wave is thought to have peaked in early November. Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard School of Public Health, said that concern over the possibility of another wave "is all the more reason ... to continue aggressive antiflu efforts." Reuters (12/11, Steenhuysen) and AFP (12/11) also cover the story.
H1N1 rates higher for American Indians, Alaska natives. The Washington Post (12/11, A11, Brown) reports that epidemiologists at the CDC announced that "the death rate from pandemic H1N1 influenza is four times higher in American Indians and Alaska natives than in the rest of the US population." An analysis released Thursday "of flu deaths in 12 states found that Indians and Alaska natives suffered 3.7 deaths per 100,000 people, compared with 0.9 deaths per 100,000 for all other ethnic groups." While CDC Director Thomas Frieden explained that the "cause of this difference in mortality is not known," he said the findings may reflect "environmental factors and underlying conditions...[and] access to healthcare rather than genetics or ethnicity."
New flu-tracking model indicates swine flu is on the decline. The Chicago Tribune (12/11, Wernau) reports that three University of Chicago professors have determined that the H1N1 virus "is on track to bottom out by the end of the year, returning to levels seen nine months ago, before the first case of H1N1 hit the US" The consensus was reached by applying a mathematical model to data from Google Flu Trends. According to the researchers, "the flu seems to have hit its peak nationwide in mid- to late October and has been trending downward since."
Health officials using new media outlets in swine flu education effort. The Boston Globe (12/11, Smith) reports that the H1N1 pandemic has forced health officials to go "where the young audience is," and embrace a series of new media outlets such as blogs, tweets, YouTube videos and Facebook. The approach seems to be working, as preliminary evidence suggests that "despite flinty budgets and a culture of caution, public health's embrace of social media is resonating with consumers." According to the Globe, swine flu videos posted by the CDC on YouTube "have attracted 3 million views since late April." However, "whether the tweets and text messages are translating into better health remains unclear."